Thursday, October 4, 2012

Apple: The Machine Rolls On, Says Argus

Jim Kelleher of Argus Research today reiterates his Buy rating on Apple (AAPL) shares in a longish think piece, in which he writes that some people tend to emphasize the hippie/visionary aspect of founder Steve Jobs while ignoring his second act, as an astute business person.

Thus, in response to Jobs’s passing away yesterday, and reflecting on Tuesday’s iPhone event, Kelleher writes, “We see some risk that the poor reception for iPhone 4S, and the absence of Steve Jobs at the presentation, will be conflated in some minds as the beginning of a duller and less important Apple.”

However, “In our view, the global ramp of existing products represents an enormous growth opportunity, while the fertile culture that Jobs created will produce more delightful and transformative products in future.”

Jobs should be remembered not just as an “artist,” writes Kelleher, but also as a businessman. “There is an accountant�s sole presiding over the P&L at Apple,” he notes, and the company’s small board of directors, just seven in all, benefits from some wise members, William Campbell, who is known as �the Coach of Silicon Valley.�

Campbell, he notes, “is well-known for taking loosely run companies created by engineering geniuses and instilling the steel of operating structure discipline. Among his successes are Google and, of course, Apple.”

Kelleher insists “The marketing apparatus is no less well-oiled than the engineering machine at Apple,” and he sees lots of room for growth:

iPhone currently has a less-than 5% handset market share; yet everyone who holds or uses one, whether first-time phone buyer or Apple lifer, is struck with its simple beauty and efficacy. If iPhone �merely� doubled its handset market share, annual revenues would rise by $60 billion. With RIM on the ropes and the Android Empire showing cracks from Google�s purchase of Motorola Mobility, there is no reason to believe that 10% share is the ceiling for iPhone.

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