Monday, January 14, 2013

8 Rallying Low-Risk Stocks With Encouraging Inventory Trends

Do you worry about risk? For ideas on how to limit your portfolio's volatility, we ran a screen.

We began by screening for stocks rallying above their 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. We then screened for those with low volatility, measured by average intra-day trading volatility over the last month under 2%.

Finally we screened for those with positive trends in revenue compared to inventory: increases in revenue year-over-year exceeding increases in inventory, as well as inventory becoming a smaller portion of current assets year-over-year.

Interactive Chart: Press Play to compare changes in analyst ratings over the last two years for the top six stocks mentioned below. Analyst ratings sourced from Zacks Investment Research.

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We also created a price-weighted index of the stocks mentioned below, and monitored the performance of the list relative to the S&P 500 index over the last month. To access a complete analysis of this list's recent performance, click here.

Do you think these stocks offer less risk? Use this list as a starting point for your own analysis.

1. Foot Locker, Inc. (FL): Operates as a retailer of athletic footwear and apparel. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.95%. The stock is currently rallying 4.73% above its 20-day moving average, 12.08% above its 50-day MA, and 27.80% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 8.91% during the most recent quarter ($1,394M vs. $1,280M y/y). Inventory grew by 0.17% during the same time period ($1,204M vs. $1,202M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 63.1% to 58.47% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending 2011-10-29 to 13 weeks ending 2010-10-30).

2. The Valspar Corporation (VAL): Distributes coatings, paints, and related products worldwide. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.90%. The stock is currently rallying 2.50% above its 20-day moving average, 9.30% above its 50-day MA, and 29.16% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 5.13% during the most recent quarter ($885.65M vs. $842.4M y/y). Inventory grew by -5.89% during the same time period ($380.94M vs. $404.78M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 32.02% to 26.69% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending 2012-01-27 to 13 weeks ending 2011-01-28).

3. BE Aerospace Inc. (BEAV): Engages in the design, manufacture, sale, and service of commercial aircraft and business jet cabin interior products worldwide. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.85%. The stock is currently rallying 0.50% above its 20-day moving average, 8.37% above its 50-day MA, and 21.81% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 20.84% during the most recent quarter ($654.7M vs. $541.8M y/y). Inventory grew by 7.9% during the same time period ($1,480.4M vs. $1,372M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 75.82% to 67.68% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-12-31 to 3 months ending 2010-12-31).

4. SYNNEX Corp. (SNX): Provides distribution and business process outsourcing services to resellers, retailers, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.83%. The stock is currently rallying 5.24% above its 20-day moving average, 16.77% above its 50-day MA, and 37.64% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 15.1% during the most recent quarter ($2,840.97M vs. $2,468.22M y/y). Inventory grew by 6.89% during the same time period ($975.05M vs. $912.24M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 41.29% to 39.99% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-11-30 to 3 months ending 2010-11-30).

5. The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW): Engages in the development, manufacture, distribution, and sale of paints, coatings, and related products primarily in North and South America, the Caribbean region, Europe, and Asia. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.36%. The stock is currently rallying 2.74% above its 20-day moving average, 7.21% above its 50-day MA, and 22.53% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 9.22% during the most recent quarter ($2,070.44M vs. $1,895.62M y/y). Inventory grew by 0.99% during the same time period ($926.81M vs. $917.7M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 41.46% to 40.98% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-12-31 to 3 months ending 2010-12-31).

6. Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): Engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products in Denmark and internationally. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.34%. The stock is currently rallying 2.92% above its 20-day moving average, 12.92% above its 50-day MA, and 22.51% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 12.38% during the most recent quarter ($18,120M vs. $16,124M y/y). Inventory grew by -2.64% during the same time period ($9,433M vs. $9,689M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 25.98% to 23.83% during the most recent quarter (comparing 3 months ending 2011-12-31 to 3 months ending 2010-12-31).

7. The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Operates as a home improvement retailer. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 1.26%. The stock is currently rallying 2.73% above its 20-day moving average, 6.57% above its 50-day MA, and 27.08% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 5.87% during the most recent quarter ($16,014M vs. $15,126M y/y). Inventory grew by -2.82% during the same time period ($10,325M vs. $10,625M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 78.83% to 71.11% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending 2012-01-29 to 13 weeks ending 2011-01-30).

8. Thomas & Betts Corp. (TNB): Designs, manufactures, and markets electrical components for industrial, construction, and utility markets in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Average intra-day volatility over the last month at 0.26%. The stock is currently rallying 0.31% above its 20-day moving average, 13.94% above its 50-day MA, and 38.81% above its 200-day MA. Revenue grew by 13.35% during the most recent quarter ($603.63M vs. $532.52M y/y). Inventory grew by 7.34% during the same time period ($236.41M vs. $220.25M y/y). Inventory, as a percentage of current assets, decreased from 23.01% to 20.67% during the most recent quarter (comparing 13 weeks ending 2011-12-31 to 13 weeks ending 2010-12-31).

*Accounting data sourced from Google Finance, all other data sourced from Finviz.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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