Thursday, June 19, 2014

Stock markets bust past big round numbers

Major indexes broke through round-number barriers Tuesday as the rally on Wall Street takes stocks to levels some thought they wouldn't see in a long while.

The Wilshire 5000 index, the broadest measure of the entire stock market, jumped 322.29 points to close at 20,133.02. It's the first major U.S. stock index to close above 20,000. And the much-watched measure of shares of small companies, the Russell 2000, jumped 32 points to close at a new high of 1208.38, breaking the 1200 barrier for the first time.

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The rally was a recovery from Monday's slide and came after Russian President Vladimir Putin made statements indicating he isn't planning to immediately escalate military efforts in Crimea. And with that major scare out of the way for now, big round numbers of psychological import are starting to dominate chatter from Wall Street to the water cooler. The Standard & Poor's 500, at Tuesday's close of 1873.91, is knocking on the door of 1900. And talk that Nasdaq 5000 is actually looking possible is surfacing for the first time in 15 years.

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"People are getting more excited about (stocks) crossing over these levels," says Craig Johnson of Piper Jaffray. "And there's growing remorse among those who are not participating." The market's surge above major levels is important because it's:

• A confirmation of the market's upward thrust. Traders are now increasingly eyeing the Standard & Poor's 500's move toward 1900 as the next major test this year, says Todd Salamone of Schaeffer's Investment Research. The key number earlier in the year was 1850, which was just beyond the 1848 level that would put the S&P 500 back in the black for the year following the early year drubbing, he says. Bulls are watching closely to see if the Dow can do the same, which would be 16,577, which remains 1% away, he says. The Nasdaq was the first major index to get back to break even this year.

•! A notice to doubters. While investors are pleased some indexes are busting to new highs, skeptics are looking for more signs of the market's upward trajectory, says Charles Carlson of Horizon Investment Services. Specifically, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Dow Jones transportation averages busting into new high ground would be a confirmation of what's going on with the other market measures, he says. "We need to reconfirm that S&P 500 high," he says.

• A repair of the market's lingering bear market damage. Nasdaq's peak of nearly 5049 notched on March 10, 2000, at the height of the dot-com boom stands as a living memory of the market's brutal destruction. The slow march back toward that level is a reminder of how much damage the bull market has undone, but still needs to repair. "The Nasdaq is still way closer to 4000 than 5000," Salamone says. The Nasdaq on Tuesday closed up 75 points to 4351.97 — still 13.0% below 5000.

"There are lots of round numbers on the way," Salamone says. "We are very encouraged."

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